Climate change has triggered more frequent and severe disasters worldwide. From wildfires to floods, countries across the globe are struggling to strengthen their disaster management—from prevention and risk reduction to relief and recovery. Take Indonesia as a case study. The floods that hit the northern part of Sumatra at the end of 2025 is a heartbreaking tragedy. It is also an example of the politics of disaster, and how state capacity is under scrutiny in the face of emergencies.

Politics of Disaster, the Indonesian Case Study

As of December 22, 2025, the National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) reported that the total number of the Sumatran flood victims had reached thousands across three provinces. Around 1,090 people have died across Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra.

Thousands have been injured, and survivors face acute food shortages in isolated pockets. There are also other less talked about casualties of this disaster, such as the loss and destruction of property, cultural heritage sites, and biodiversity and ecosystems.

Yet, the government under the Prabowo administration has not lifted the disaster status to a “National Emergency”. This is where the play in politics of disaster comes in.

A “National Emergency” status is not just a label; it is a trigger mechanism. It shifts the burden of responsibility and cost from regional administrations to the central government. Under this status, the state must deploy the full weight of the State Budget and  national logistics. Moreover, the government must potentially open the door to international aid. By refusing this status, the central government avoids becoming the primary underwriter of the crisis.

Questionable State Capacity

How the politics of disaster play out usually reflects the reality of state capacity. In the Indonesian case study, the harsh truth is that the central government lacks the fiscal capacity to be the hero.

The National Agency for Disaster Management estimates disaster recovery costs at 51.82 trillion IDR (about 3 billion USD). However, the government’s war chest is empty. The Ready-to-Use Fund (DSP) holds only 1.6 trillion IDR, and the disaster reserve has a remaining balance of just 2.97 trillion IDR. Combined, these funds cover a mere 8.8% of the total requirement. The state’s financial capacity is roughly 11 times lower than the magnitude of the destruction.

This deficit illustrates the gap between the “state on paper” and the “state in reality”, a classic problem of State Capacity. When disaster strikes and local governments collapse, citizens look to the center. If the central government cannot intervene effectively, the state has, in essence, lost its functional capacity.

And yet, we see a government that deems itself powerful enough to refuse aid from Malaysia and the UAE (even though it received some aid from Starlink). The central government wants to maintain an image of self-reliance, yet is too fiscally constrained to offer immediate relief. Even the promised 46.05 trillion IDR transfer to regions is a lifeline thrown too late, as it is slated for next year’s budget, rendering it useless for the immediate “golden time” of rescue operations.

Meanwhile, the central administration touts the Disaster Management Joint Fund (PFB) as a win. The PFB acts as a fiscal buffer through insurance, allowing the state to fund rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts flexibly throughout the year outside of the rigid annual budget cycle. While the government has successfully insured over 91 trillion IDR (approx. 5.8 billion USD) in State-Owned Assets through the PFB and ministry budgets, this mechanism primarily protects government buildings and infrastructure, not the people.

Simply put, the government of Indonesia seems to overclaim its state capacity to provide for its people, all for the illusion of safety and power.

Political Will, Corporate Accountability, and Regional Intervention

A pathway toward a resilient nation is paved with political will, corporate accountability, and regional intervention. From policies and regulations to financial aids, the politics of disaster must prioritize the people. The real power of the state should be used to enforce a broader safety net. It must also consider the long-term impacts of each decision, digging deep into root causes.

Foundationally, it is crucial to recognize that human decisions—political decisions—shape how a nation experiences natural hazards. Therefore, putting the spotlight and responsibility on those accountable for the disasters is a valid financing plan.

For instance, the Sumatran floods are not purely “natural”; they are the downstream effect of upstream land conversion. Thus, the government must have the political will to compel palm oil companies and extractive industries to fund a “climate resilience surcharge”. These entities, which profit from the global market while contributing to local environmental degradation, should underwrite the premiums for disaster insurance. The threat of moving money or reducing jobs is a classic excuse from the elites. But true state capacity is defined by the ability to put civilians first, not the comfort of elites.

Another important item is to establish a disaster financing mechanism with regional and international organizations. In the case of Indonesia, expanding on the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) would be helpful. Currently, AADMER only depends on slow, voluntary contributions, just like a begging bowl model.

An alternative model to adapt is the Financial Risk Management model, just like the Caribbean’s CCRIF SPC. By using parametric insurance, where the payment is automatic based on satellite data on rainfall or wind speed, regional organizations can provide cash immediately. This ensures money flows into affected countries within days, not months. It protects the country’s economy and fiscal budget vulnerability without waiting for political agreement.

Decisions, Decisions

Ultimately, disasters do not happen in vacuum. A flood is never just about water; it is a political event. The rain falls from the sky, but politics and economics decide who drowns and who stays dry. Those are choices. And if the government cannot protect its people from the water, it must at least build the financial ark to ensure they do not go under.

Editor: Nazalea Kusuma

Co-create positive impact for people and the planet.

Amidst today’s increasingly complex global challenges, equipping yourself, team, and communities with interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral insights on sustainability-related issues and sustainable development is no longer optional — it is a strategic necessity to stay ahead and stay relevant.

Join Membership Partner with Us

Anum Intan Maulidi

+ postsBio

Anum is a public relations officer and social media strategist, currently working for the Directorate General of Taxes, Ministry of Finance of Indonesia. She is pursuing International Relations at President University Indonesia. Her work focuses on public sector communication, digital engagement, project management, and institutional cooperation. Beyond her professional work, Anum has served as a dedicated United Nations volunteer, contributing to initiatives that promote the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This author does not have any more posts.