Projections on Renewable Transport Development and Opportunities

In his remarks on Climate Action, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres claimed that renewables are the foundation of energy security and sovereignty. As such, renewable energy is being massively developed and deployed worldwide, particularly in high-emission sectors like transportation. With the rising popularity of electric vehicles and biofuels, they offer potential solutions to accelerate progress in renewable transport.

Electric Vehicle Domination

Currently, the transport sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels to power motorized vehicles on land, sea, and air. In 2022 alone, carbon emissions from the transport sector reached 8 Gigatons, amassing a 3% increase from the previous year. Curbing this level of emission comes with several options, including the deployment of electric vehicles and the development of alternative, lower-emission fuels.

The International Energy Agency’s report estimates a 50% increase in the transport sector’s renewable energy consumption by 2030. A significant portion of this projection can be attributed to the increasing use of renewable electricity to power electric vehicles, with China and Europe in the lead.

In China, particularly, the IEA predicts that electric vehicles will account for over 30% of cars on the road by 2030. This will come alongside the expansion of charging stations and declining vehicle costs. Meanwhile, the European Union is the key net exporter of electric cars to other European countries and North America.

Biofuel Uptake

Aside from electricity, the use of biofuels for renewable transport is also growing. Developing alternative fuels from biomass is especially relevant for decarbonizing vehicles like planes and ships, which can be challenging to electrify due to their high cost.

Rising fuel demand and stronger mandates contribute to the biofuel uptake. The IEA projects that road biofuels will account for 35% of the increase in renewable energy, while aviation and maritime fuels will account for 10%. Aside from offering a low-carbon fuel alternative, biofuel usage can also reduce dependency on oil imports in countries with high transport demand like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Supporting Renewable Transport

Despite promising solutions from two alternatives above, accelerating progress for renewable transport must be closely monitored to prevent further harm to people and the planet. One of the biggest concerns is the potential overextraction of critical minerals for use in renewable energy infrastructures. Unchecked, these extractive practices could lead to biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. This industry is also at high risk of exploitation and modern slavery that puts decarbonization at the expense of human rights. Meanwhile, the ambition to produce biofuels can lead to deforestation as a means of prioritizing the cultivation of plants for biofuel feedstock.

Therefore, beyond only adhering to the global demand, realizing the opportunities in renewable transport requires careful planning, strict regulation, and strong collaboration, among other things. Firm regulations and standards that mandate a shift from fossil fuels to renewables from governments become instrumental in fostering change and stimulating growth in the sector. At the same time, safeguarding human rights and leaving no one behind must remain at the core principle of the world’s just energy transition in all sectors.

Editor: Nazalea Kusuma

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Kresentia Madina

Reporter at Green Network Asia | Website | + posts

Madina is the Assistant Manager for Digital Publications at Green Network Asia. She graduated from Universitas Indonesia with a bachelor's degree in English Literature. She has three years of professional experience working on GNA international digital publications, programs, and partnerships particularly on social and cultural issues.